SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:Max Verstappen has a ‘monster’ to tame in Baku as Red Bull’s era of F1 dominance comes under threat

Lando Norris is SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Centeronly one of Max Verstappen’s problems at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. The other is his own car.

Verstappen needs to tame a car he’s called a “monster” to hold off Norris and defend his Formula 1 title, all while the Red Bull team’s years of dominance in Formula 1 seem to be nearing their end. Verstappen and Red Bull haven’t won any of the last six races going into the Azerbaijan Grand Prix on Sunday.

Norris will now be favored by McLaren over teammate Oscar Piastri but will likely need some big slip-ups from Verstappen or Red Bull to overhaul the Dutch driver’s 62-point lead in the last eight races of 2024,

The target is much closer in the constructor’s standings, with the McLaren team just eight points behind Red Bull, so that lead could change hands in Azerbaijan on Sunday.

New rivals to Red Bull are emerging, powered by Red Bull expertise.

The departure of Red Bull’s car design guru Adrian Newey to Aston Martin is a sign of the long-term ambition of a team backed by billionaire Lawrence Stroll.

Dubbed “the team of the future” by driver Fernando Alonso, they have an eye on designing a car to exploit the new F1 regulations in 2026 — just like Newey did for Red Bull in 2022. Aston Martin has even signaled it would be open to signing Verstappen, who has a Red Bull contract through 2028.

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Another key lieutenant to Red Bull team principal Christian Horner, sporting director Jonathan Wheatley, is leaving at the end of the season before heading up the ambitious new Audi works team arriving in 2026.

More immediately, there simply isn’t much room to improve Red Bull’s once-dominant car. McLaren and Mercedes seem to have more stable, adaptable designs.

The car “was basically on rails and I could do whatever I wanted,” enthused Verstappen after winning the Chinese Grand Prix in April, his fourth in five races at the start of the season. Each upgrade seems to have made the car less stable and increased tire wear.

“We basically went from a very dominant car to an undriveable car in the space of, what, six to eight months?” he said in Italy.

‘Papaya rules’ confusion

The confirmation that McLaren will have a “bias” toward Lando Norris over his teammate Oscar Piastri from now on should boost Norris’ title challenge. But key questions remain unanswered.

Racing under the team’s vaguely defined “papaya rules” — named for McLaren’s orange color — at the Italian Grand Prix, Norris and Piastri started first and second but neither got the win.

Piastri overtook Norris early on, allowing Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc to get by too, and when Norris and Piastri competed to set fast lap times, it hurt their tires and let Leclerc take a win with smart strategy.

What “papaya rules” meant was never fully explained, other than not crashing into one another, and the team’s “bias” is almost as mysterious.

Norris suggested Thursday that Piastri would be expected to hand over “lower positions” but would keep a win if he was “deserving” of it. Would there be repeat of the scenes at the Hungarian Grand Prix, when a team one-two was marred by awkward radio pleas for Norris to hand the lead back to Piastri? Unclear.

Verstappen leads first practice

Red Bull showed signs of improved form in Baku as Verstappen was fastest in the first practice Friday, with Perez third, but crashes for Leclerc and Williams rookie Franco Colapinto brought out the red flag and limited everyone’s track time.

Verstappen’s last lap put him 0.313 seconds ahead of Lewis Hamilton for Mercedes, with Sergio Perez .063 further back in the second Red Bull. Norris was fourth-fastest and Piastri sixth.

Youngsters in the spotlight

British teenager Oliver Bearman is back on the grid with Haas in Baku after Kevin Magnussen was suspended one race for picking up too many penalty points in a series of different incidents.

Bearman — who was seventh for Ferrari at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in March — is the Formula 2 teammate of Kimi Antonelli, who’s replacing Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes next season.

Another F2 face lighting up F1 is Colapinto, who replaced Logan Sargeant at Williams last month and was an impressive 12th on his debut in Italy. If he can break into the top 10, Colapinto would be the first driver from Argentina to score points since 1982, but his practice crash showed he’s still learning a new track in Baku.

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