FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|NFL Week 4 overreactions: Rashee Rice injury ends Chiefs’ three-peat hopes?

Patrick Mahomes may have FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Centertaken out the Kansas City Chiefs’ best shot at a third straight Super Bowl and his fourth Lombardi Trophy overall.

The Chiefs appear to be without leading receiver Rashee Rice, who suffered a right knee injury initially feared as season ending. Rice has reportedly sought multiple options on the injury after Mahomes collided into him while diving toward a player returning an interception. 

Kansas City beat the Los Angeles Chargers to get off to a 4-0 start, but the hopes for a three-peat, and four titles in a six-year span, looks bleak after the first month of the season. 

Rice entered Sunday’s game with 24 catches, triple what star tight end Travis Kelce had before the win. It’s clear he became a focal part of the offense in his second season. 

Now, Rice joins receiver Hollywood Brown (out for the season with a shoulder injury) and running back Isiah Pacheco (who could return in the second half of a season after leg surgery) on the sidelines. That’s three major injuries limiting what the Chiefs can do offensively – even as great at Mahomes is. 

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There’s plenty of season left for the Chiefs to either falter or overcome the adversity. It would be foolish to underestimate Mahomes, future Hall of Fame coach Andy Reid, and the vaunted Chiefs defense under Steve Spagnuolo. And they’ve won at least one Super Bowl (2023) with less at receiver. 

Still, we’re going to overreact now and say the three-peat looks out of reach. 

Here are some more NFL overreactions from Week 4: 

The fairytale is over in Jets land

Sean Payton got the last laugh after the Denver Broncos handed Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets a 10-9 loss at home last week. 

The loss left Rodgers dismissing Jets coach Robert Saleh’s postgame comment about Rodgers' cadence being an issue on offense. And let’s not forget about Rodgers rejecting a hug from Saleh earlier this season. The fairytale is over in Jets land. 

Remember, Payton criticized Nathaniel Hackett for "one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL" after taking over the Broncos last year. Rodgers and Saleh defended Hackett, who became the Jets offensive coordinator. 

Sure, it was an abysmal day offensively due to some rain. But star running back Breece Hall is touted to be way better than his 10-carry, 4-yard rushing performance. The Jets also had 13 penalties in the loss. It was an amazing let down after their 2-1 start.

Commanders are a favorite to win NFC East 

You read that right. The Washington Commanders are a favorite to win the NFC East this season after an incredible 3-1 start behind No. 2 draft pick Jayden Daniels. 

New Commanders owner Josh Harris hired the right, experienced coach in Dan Quinn. Kliff Kingsbury was the right hire by Quinn at offensive coordinator. And the buy-in to have Daniels, who won the Heisman Trophy at LSU, run a college-styled offense was another great decision. 

Daniels is an early MVP candidate with this eye-opening stat as a rookie: He’s led more scoring drives (23) than he's thrown incompletions (19). 

Daniels leads the NFL with a 82.1 completion percentage, is fifth with a 73.4 QBR, and scored four of the team’s league leading 10 rushing touchdowns. The Commanders are third in the NFL, scoring 30.3 points per game, and showing no signs of slowing down.  

Bills offense isn’t ready for prime time yet 

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills' offense got roughed up on Sunday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens – showing their offense needs more time to grow and misses big-play receiver Stefon Diggs after all. 

It didn’t help Buffalo to be playing from behind after Derrick Henry opened the game with a 87-yard run for Buffalo. The Bills could only muster a touchdown against the Ravens after torching their first three inferior opponents for 13 touchdowns this season. 

Allen was shaken up after a strip fumble, taking a hard fall in the third quarter, and finished 16 of 29 for 180 yards.

The Bills weren’t ready for the Ravens. They’ll likely scrap it out again with the Chiefs, in the NFL’s best rivalry, because of their stars. The 49ers and Lions could also be troublesome later this season. And they need to figure out their corrections quickly because they could be out-dueled again by C.J. Stroud and the Texans next week. 

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(This story was updated because an earlier version had an inaccuracy.)