PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Houston Astros release ex-MVP José Abreu, eating about $30 million

Less than two years ago,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center the Houston Astros were celebrating winning the bidding war for former American League MVP Jose Abreu.

On Friday afternoon, they painfully acknowledged their expensive mistake.

The Astros released Abreu halfway through his three-year, $58.5 million contract, paying him about $30 million to go home.

Abreu, who was hitting just .124 with two homers and seven RBI after spending a month at their minor-league complex to fix his swing, is owed the remainder of his $19.5 million salary this year and $19.5 million in 2025.

It’s the most money the Astros have ever eaten on a contract, and considering Abreu’s negative 1.6 WAR, may be the worst contract in franchise history.

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Abreu badly struggled at the outset of last season, too, but Astros manager Dusty Baker stuck with him and was rewarded when Abreu had a strong finish with seven homers and 27 RBI in the final month, winding up hitting .237 with 18 homers and 90 RBI. He thrived in the postseason with four homers and 13 RBI, helping lead the Astros to within one game of the World Series.

Yet, this season, he looked like an old man at the age of 37. He was just 7-for-71 when he agreed to go to the minors this season, and when he returned, hit .167 in 43 plate appearances.

Despite the heavy financial commitment, the Astros simply didn’t believe he could regain his hitting prowess.

“We tried everything,” GM Dana Brown told reporters Friday. “it just didn’t work out.”

Abreu was a star with the Chicago White Sox, receiving MVP votes in seven seasons, driving in more than 100 runs six times, culminating with the 2020 AL MVP award. When he became a free agent after the 2023 season, the Miami Marlins and Astros were the finalists for his services, with Abreu choosing the Astros after they guaranteed him a three-year contract.

If any team signs Abreu, it will have to pay only the prorated minimum salary of $740,000 with the Astros paying the rest.

The Astros, 31-38, badly still need a productive-hitting first baseman if they are going to reach the ALCS for the eighth consecutive year. Their first basemen are hitting .181 with a .262 on-base percentage and .291 slugging percentage, the second-lowest in baseball behind only the Colorado Rockies.

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