Johnathan Walker:Devastating losses: Economic toll from fires in Maui at least $4B, according to Moody's

The Johnathan Walkerwildfires in Maui are thought to have caused at least $4 billion in economic losses, according to a recent report from Moody’s Analytics.

The risk modeling agency estimates that the wildfires, which destroyed more than 2,000 structures, caused anywhere between $4 to $6 billion in losses from property damage and business interruption, with the town of Lahaina taking the brunt of the damage. That's not including up to $1 billion reflecting in lost output, the report added.

Additionally, Gross Domestic Product loss, government payments and additional social costs from the wildfires were not included in the estimate, meaning the total cost of the wildfire is likely higher. At least 75% of the damage is thought to be covered by insurance.

"The damage figures are unusually large for such a small footprint," Adam Kamins, a Moody's senior economist who co-authored the report told USA TODAY Tuesday. "Usually, the economic impact such as this is more spread out, but in the case of this fire, it wreaked havoc in a fairly dense area fairly quickly."

Number of missing persons from Maui wildfire climbs

At least 115 people died in the Aug. 8 disaster, and Hawaii officials said Tuesday that some 1,000 people are still missing, after previously lowering the missing count to about 850 on Monday.

The number of missing persons fluctuates daily as new reports are filed and others are located, FBI Special Agent in Charge Steven Merrill told reporters during a press conference late Tuesday.

Maui Police Chief John Pelletier added that authorities plan to release a verified list of those unaccounted for in the coming days as the FBI is now assisting in the recovery efforts. Pelletier compared the search in Lahaina to the attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City on September 11, 2001.

"We don’t have that type of devastation with the towers like we saw there, but we have an entire town that is destroyed," Pelletier said. “Realistically, let’s be honest here, we are going to have a number of confirmed, we are going to have a number of presumed. I do not have that number now. We are going to work diligently to get that. It may take a while."

Rebuilding and reconstruction in Maui could take years, Moody's expert says

Kamins said rebuilding and recovery efforts could possibly lead to some "small pockets" of Lahaina and West Maui reopening by mid-to-late fall. However, Hawaii's Kahului metro area, which is home toMaui, the nation’s second-least affordable economy among roughly 400 U.S. metros, Kamins adds the wildfire's aftermath could push the current cost of living prices higher, including housing as the median single-family house price in Maui just above $1 million.

This could further erode any progress the state made on affordable living and spark a new migration from residents in a state that is struggling to retain them, Kamins said.

"That's the big unknown," Kamins said, adding the effects in the near term will be significant.

Kamins cites in his report that jobs will likely be shed as some hotels close their doors or look to cut costs. Some restaurants and retailers will also permanently close their doors, even if their establishments survivedthe fires. And state revenues, which rely heavily on taxes paid by tourists, could fall in the near term, creatingfiscal challenges.

Another expert forecasts Hawaii wildfire damage in the billions

Moody's isn't alone in estimating damage from the Hawaii wildfires in the billions. Commercial forecaster AccuWeather preliminarily estimates the total damage and economic loss from the wildfires between $14 to $16 billion ‒ or about 15% of the state's GDP. Accuweather's estimate also factored in tourism, which it said accounts for 75% of the revenue generated in Maui, which will "take months, if not longer, to recover."

"Unfortunately, upon surveying the latest damage reports from Hawaii, especially in Maui, to homes, businesses, (and) boats, the extensive loss of life, evacuations, widespread power outages, and other factors, we increased our estimate," said Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist.

Rebuilding is expected to be costly, according to Moody's report. Labor costs and other expenses are already elevated on the island, and inflation will likely continue to drive up costs throughout the “expected long” recovery time.

"Even with rebuilding efforts providing a boost by fall, this is more than enough to suggest a brief but severe local recession," Moody's report said.

'The next Maui could be anywhere':Hawaii tragedy points to US wildfire vulnerability